Each round of the playoffs, I like to forecast the round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Athletics Jerseys 2020 . It offers no assurances and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. Last year, this method forecasted the first round at a 7-1 clip; this year it was 5-3, with losses on Columbus, Colorado and San Jose. In the first two cases, their strong goaltending led to a calculated advantage, but it can be difficult for goaltending superiority to take effect over much larger samples, let alone seven games. As for the Sharks, they were in a virtual toss-up situation with the Kings, favoured by the smallest of margins. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, Boston had 32.1 shots on goal per game and Montreal has allowed 28.6 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 30.35 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for Round Two: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Boston 32.1 29.3 Tuukka Rask 0.933 15.93 Montreal 30.9 28.6 Carey Price 0.925 14.12 Verdict: The Bruins are favoured, with a slightly better shot differential and slightly better goaltending, and its simple enough that way. But when the Habs and Bruins meet in the playoffs, strange things can happen. Higher-seeded Canadiens teams have been bounced by lower-seeded Bruins teams and vice versa. Between these two incarnations of the Canadiens and Bruins is a wonderful contrast in styles as the Bruins are more physically-imposing while the Canadiens are a smaller, skilled group. While some teams (including the Red Wings in Round One) avoid getting into confrontations with the Bruins, the Canadiens havent always taken that approach, and it not only makes for entertaining hockey, it adds some variability to the process. Furthermore, if the Canadiens can keep Tuukka Rask off his game (his .908 save percentage vs. Montreal is his lowest vs. teams that hes faced at least 10 times in his career), then that could help close the calculated gap between the teams. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Pittsburgh 30.4 29.1 Marc-Andre Fleury 0.915 16.66 N.Y. Rangers 33.1 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.920 18.50 Verdict: The Penguins were forecasted to lose -- or, more accurately, score fewer goals -- against Columbus, but here they are in the second round, looking at a similar forecast, against a team with a better shot differential and better goaltending. The Penguins are healthier than theyve been for most of the season, which helps, and they have elite forwards that can shake results. The Rangers could control play and it wouldnt take a Henrik Lundqvist collapse to see the Penguins get through. All it might take is Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin going off for a few games. Heck, they managed to get past Columbus with contributions from a lot more than Crosby and Malkin. Defencemen Paul Martin and Matt Niskanen led the Penguins with eight points, Brandon Sutter added five and Beau Bennett chipped in four. In my playoff picks, I had the Penguins going past the Rangers and its on the expectation that, at some point, the Penguins elite players will bury more of their chances, though that also requires some faith in Marc-Andre Fleury and that hasnt been a safe feeling for the Penguins in the playoffs for quite some time. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Anaheim 31.0 28.8 Frederik Andersen 0.918 17.26 Los Angeles 31.6 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.915 17.33 Anaheim 31.0 28.8 Jonas Hiller 0.912 17.26 Los Angeles 31.6 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.915 18.60 Verdict: I presume that the Ducks are going back to rookie Frederik Andersen, even after he was pulled twice against Dallas in the first round (but I included calculations for Hiller anyway). This is another really close series in which the Kings get slightly favoured because they have superior shot differential. The Ducks have exceeded more advanced possession metrics all year, in part because they have been insanely fortunate when it comes to shooting in close games. Oh, and here too. That isnt the kind of thing that seems possible to repeat over time but, it worked enough to take down Dallas in the first round, so it wouldnt come as a shock if they can do it against Los Angeles. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.9 27.8 Corey Crawford 0.919 18.15 Minnesota 27.2 27.4 Darcy Kuemper 0.914 15.59 Chicago 32.9 27.8 Corey Crawford 0.919 20.05 Minnesota 27.2 27.4 Ilya Bryzgalov 0.905 15.59 Verdict: Again, a presumption that the Wild will have Darcy Kuemper to start the series, despite leaving Game Seven against Colorado with an injury. If the Wild are really rolling with Ilya Bryzgalov, then the forecast will be unfavourable, just as it was in the first round, but if Kuemper is in, he offers a slightly better chance. No matter who is in net for the Wild, though, they will have their hands full, because they are facing a team that generates a whole lot more shots than their opponents. So long as Corey Crawford is decent, and there arent any major injuries, then the Blackhawks will warrant their status as prohibitive favourites. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Fake Athletics Jerseys .J. -- After getting permission from his 7-year-old daughter, New York Giants offensive lineman David Diehl has retired after an 11-year career that included two Super Bowl championships. Athletics Jerseys China .ca Fantasy Editor Scott Cullen, NFL Editor Ben Fisher, and Isaac Owusu discuss three hot fantasy football topics. https://www.cheapathleticsonline.com/ . -- Slugger Jose Abreu, All-Star left-hander Chris Sale and closer Matt Lindstrom are on the disabled list.TORONTO - Drew Hutchisons first full big league season is scheduled to come to an end with a start against the Baltimore Orioles on Friday night. The 24-year-old native of Lakeland, Florida, is 10-13 with a 4.51 ERA. But a FIP of 3.94 and xFIP of 3.89 suggests a better year than the base numbers allow. Hutchison also is working a 23-percent strikeout rate and, entering Tuesdays play, ranked 18th among qualified starting pitchers having struck out 8.82 batters per nine innings. Hutchison discusses his season, his approach to the grind of a long year and shares the one start which has given him his fondest memories. Hint: its not what you may think. Listen to the interview here. Below is the transcript of the conversation: TSN.ca: Drew, one more start left before you put the wraps on your first full big league season. How would you describe how your season has gone? HUTCHISON: I think there are a couple of different ways to look at it. Obviously, your first goal every year is to stay healthy and make every start so I think that was my first goal and going into this last one, so far, Ive been able to do that so I think thats a very big positive. I think Ive had a pretty interesting season, a lot of real highs and real lows, unfortunately. But I think overall its been good and I think its a good starting point is probably the best way to sum it up. TSN.ca: Youre not going to get to 200 innings but youre effectively knocking on that door the first year off of Tommy John. How has your arm held up over the course of the year? Youve had some time now to look back. Were there periods when youve felt better at times than others? HUTCHISON: Yeah, I think that goes for every year though even if youre not really coming off injuries. Every pitcher goes through that every year. I felt good all year and I felt healthy and strong all year. I think I had to get over little a bit of a hump in the middle of the year and then after I did that I felt Ive gotten stronger as weve gotten to the end here and I feel good and I think thats just a byproduct of pitching and going 100 and however many innings Im going to end up with. I think thats just the normal ebbs and flows of the year. TSN.ca: Its funny, talked to Mark Buehrle yesterday and he said the same thing and hes so much further along in his career than you. Can you describe what thats like? I mean, its not so much pain or anything but when you have so-called "dead arm" or youre going through a tired phase, what does that feel like or what does that result in? HUTCHISON: I mean, you talk to any pitcher when they take the mound theyre not always going to feel great, 100-percent, every part of their body. Its just how it is. This season is a long grind and you do everything you can to take care of your body and put yourself in the best position that you can. Thats just part of the long season. Thats just the way it goes. Whatever you have that night you have and you go out there and give it all you have with what youve got. Thats not pain; thats not being hurt; thats none of that. Thats just pitching. TSN.ca: Youre striking out about 23-percent of the hitters you face. I think youre Top-20, averaging a little more than 8.8 hitters struck out per nine innings. Are you more of a strikeout pitcher than maybe you thought you would have been when you broke into the big leagues? HUTCHISON: No. I mean Ive always been able to strike out hitters because I feel like I have good fastball command and if you get ahead of hitters then youve earned the right to put them away and thats the way Ive always approached it. Ive always been able to strike out guys through the minor leagues. I had really good command in the minor leagues so I guess sometimes when you have good command youre not really associated with overpowering stuff or striking guys out just because of that. But I think thats just a byproduct of commanding the baseball and when you get ahead of guys youre able to put them away. TSN.ca: The slider too is a huge pitch for you. I mean, you were getting, I think, some pretty nice comparisons from outside observers with that pitch. HUTCHISON: Yeah, I think its come a long way, especially since I got called up in 2012. It was probably the pitch I was working on the most at the time. Where its come, even throughout the season, Im real happy with what Ive able to do with it with Pete, you know the work weve put in with it to get it consistent and throwing it to both sides of the plate, which Ive been able to do here recently I think has been part of the reason Ive had so many strikeouts. I think thats big a pitch for me to continue to develop that and continue to get better with all my pitches. My fastball command this year, its been good but it hasnt really been to my standards of it. There have been times where Ive had some bad games when Ive struggled because of the command of my fastball. My command, I take a lot of pride in that so thats been a little bit frustrating to not have that to my standards as much but its something Im looking forward to improving. TSN.ca: On a positive note, which start and there have been a few but which start stands out to you as maybe your favourite looking back on the season? HUTCHISON: Chicago. No doubt. TSN.ca: Thats interesting because in my head Im thinking Arlington, where you stare down Yu Darvish and you outpitch him. I think it was a two-hit shutout. But Chicago, if you remember that, the tough first inning and then you hung in. HUTCHISON: Yeah, I threw 50-something pitches in the first inning and still went seven. I think thats what pitchings all about to me because as a starting pitcher your job is to go deep and give your team a chance to win. So to be able to go back out there and continue to pitch and get through seven innings given the way I came out and the way I started, wwe did have a chance to win the game. Chris Bassitt Athletics Jersey. In spite of all that our offence came back and battled. We didnt win the game but at the same time to still have the faith from your manager and your teammates out there to stay out there and keep it right there for them, I take pride in those type of starts because I think thats when you show what youre really made of. TSN.ca: Are you any sort of a believer in momentum because I think that Chicago start, the first inning of that Chicago start, was really the last time you struggled quite badly? Youve had a really nice run since that time. HUTCHISON: Yeah, I mean, I was throwing the ball well I felt like going into that and I made a couple of bad pitches. I walked a couple of guys and then gave up a grand slam and then gave up another home run in that inning. Thats whats frustrating about that start, when you look back on it, after the grand slam, you get out of it and we win that game. Instead of being able to bear down I gave up another one in that inning. It was very similar to my start against the Orioles, you know a couple of bad pitches. I guess that can kind of some up my season at some points is dominatingly brutal at times where, you know, you have a good run but you make a couple of bad pitches and you pay for it and thats what happens at this level. TSN.ca: Theres a lot of talk about how hard it is and I think that there is proof, given that this team hasnt signed a high profile pitching free agent since A.J. Burnett, about how hard it is to lure free agent pitchers to Toronto because of the homerdome. How difficult is it to pitch in this park compared to some of the other places you go to? HUTCHISON: I mean, it is what it is. I like pitching here. I know a lot was made of my home-road splits early in the year and if you look at them now it kind of tells the story. People get caught up in that and sometimes they shouldnt. It is what it is. We play in the AL East, a lot of big hitters and a lot of small ballparks. Its just what it is. Its a challenge and thats whats fun about it is to face some of the best hitters and not have a lot of margin for error. TSN.ca: When you look ahead, yourself, Marcus (Stroman), Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris is knocking on the door, there may be a surprise or two coming along down the pipe as well, I mean is this an exciting time in your mind for this franchise with the number of good, quality young arms that you would hope are going to be able to carry this franchise for years to come? HUTCHISON: Yeah I hope so. Obviously to be mentioned as part of that, its exciting. At the same time, this year, its disappointing to be where we were and the opportunity that we had and then ultimately to have what happened happen, its disappointing. I take ownership in that along with everyone else. You never want to chalk things up to experience because Im not a believer in just going out there and getting experience and looking toward the future because its about winning and its about getting the job done now but as you look toward the future it is exciting. TSN.ca: Weve talked before. Youre kind of a no-nonsense guy. You dont like excuses. How hard are you on yourself after a tough outing? How able are you to just sort of sluff it off and look ahead to five days later? HUTCHISON: I have my process. Just like a good start or a bad start, you dont get obsessed with a great start and you dont get obsessed with a terrible start, both ways, whichever way it happens to be going for you at that time. You stick to your process and what you need to do to get prepared for your next one because you learn from your previous one, good and bad. I have the standard that I set for myself. Whether people want to say Im too hard on myself or too easy on myself, thats not really relevant to me. I want to win and thats what its about so I do everything I can to go out there and give us the best chance to win every time I take the ball and it sounds cliché and it sounds all that but really thats what its about, to be able to look yourself in the mirror and know youve done everything you can to give your team a chance. TSN.ca: Im probably asking you an impossible question because I think Im going to ask you to talk about yourself in a way that you just naturally are. But there are some guys who get so deep into their own heads that they cant come out of it or it eats them up. Youre still so young in this game. Is that a product of the way you were raised, the experiences that you had coming up through the sport? To what do you attribute just your ability at such a young age to just kind of deal with it? HUTCHISON: The things you mentioned, I think its a little bit of all of that. Naturally you are who you are and you cant be anybody else. Im a big believer in you have to be yourself in order to be successful. Definitely part of it could be the way that I was raised or the way Ive come up through baseball with other guys Ive played with or whatever have it be, you know its just me. To be successful I have to do that. As you talk about team and winning I think thats everybody. You have to be yourself within the confines of the team and its just the way I am. TSN.ca: How close is this team to being a legit contender in the American League East? HUTCHISON: I think we showed it earlier in the year. Unfortunately we had injuries, just like everybody else had injuries, thats never an excuse you know, you have to step up and get over injuries and things like that. We had a real chance this year and I think we showed the type of team we are and unfortunately we just didnt get the job done. I think its pretty much that simple. Thats on me and every other guy in here and its on us going forward to not let that happen again. TSN.ca: Thanks so much, Drew, appreciate it. HUTCHISON: No problem. ' ' '